A recent study carried out by a team of researchers from INGV and the Federico II University of Naples has presented an estimate of the probability of volcanic eruptions occurring in a time span ranging from one to one hundred thousand years, considering both small and large events explosive eruptions, commonly referred to as “super-eruptions”
The results object of this perspective paper, fruit of the work of Paolo Papale, researcher of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), and Warner Marzocchi, of the Federico II University, offer for the first time a global estimate of the probability of the occurrence of a volcanic eruption. The work is based on information relating to volcanic eruptions that have occurred all over the world and takes into consideration the temporal distribution of events of all sizes: thanks to these data, the result of previous work, Papale and Marzocchi were able to calculate the probability that a eruption of each size, and were then able to compare these probabilities with those associated with other adverse events, such as asteroid impacts or nuclear power plant accidents.
“There are no plans to deal with the consequences of an eruption of cataclysmic dimensions, capable of deeply affecting society on a planetary scale”, explains the INGV researcher Papale, “however, such eruptions have occurred many times in the past, they will certainly occur again in the future and the probability of this happening is ten times greater than the maximum probability of core meltdown, a risk considered acceptable for the operation of a nuclear power plant”.
Not only that: the effects of a super-eruption would have a far greater impact than that of a nuclear accident. Even if in historical times an eruption of such proportions has not yet been witnessed, it is possible to understand its effects thanks to geological reconstructions, physical and mathematical models and extrapolations from observations made on smaller scale eruptions. Overall, the consequences of a super-eruption are considered by volcanologists to be such as to question the survival of civilization itself as we know it today: just think, for example, of the eruption of the Tambora volcano in Indonesia in 1815 which , despite being dozens of times smaller than a potential super-eruption, caused what was called "the year without a summer" in Europe.
A super-eruption that occurred somewhere in the world, therefore, could cause months, perhaps years, of closure of air traffic over a large part of the globe due to the concentration of volcanic ash in the atmosphere, capable of causing engine blocking reaction. Climate change, mainly due to volcanic ash and even more to the formation of aerosols in the upper layers of the atmosphere, could continue for many years with effects on agriculture all over the planet.
"Global society invests large resources to defend itself from the severe consequences of the possible impact with a kilometer-sized asteroid, despite the fact that this event has a probability of occurring at least ten times less than a super-eruption", concludes Papale, "it would therefore be appropriate, likewise, investing in the definition of resilience plans from very large eruptions so as to equip humanity with a strategy that allows the safeguarding of the critical elements necessary for maintaining the level of progress and civilization so painstakingly achieved".
Papale and Marzocchi's study, "Volcanic threats to global society", was published in the journal Science. The study reflects the views of its authors.
Image – Probability of the occurrence of a planetary-scale eruption