A new model for the probabilistic prediction of earthquakes in the Campi Flegrei integrates, for the first time, data on ground deformation into statistical seismic models.
Ground deformation rate data for improving short-term probabilistic earthquake forecasting capabilities in the Campi Flegrei area. These measurements have been integrated for the first time into statistical seismic models, thanks to research “Adding strain rate information into a short-term seismicity model improves forecasting performances: the case of Campi Flegrei, Italy”, published in the magazine Seismic e conducted by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) in collaboration with theEarth Observatory of Singapore.
“The introduction of geodetic signals into seismic models not only makes them more physically realistic, but also paves the way for more reliable probabilistic earthquake forecasting systems in areas like the Campi Flegrei.” said Matteo Taroni, INGV researcher and co-author of the study.
The research, in fact, starts from the assumption that traditional short-term probabilistic seismic forecasting models, such as ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence), are based exclusively on catalogues of past earthquakes, not taking into account external mechanisms such as the deformation of the Earth's crust, which plays a crucial role in volcanic environments. A systematic review examines eleven years of measurements (2013-2024) and aims to create an updated model that allows the background seismicity rate to vary over time based on deformation data measured by geodetic sensors located on the Campi Flegrei.
"The comparison between the traditional model and the one that also considers deformation data highlighted the importance of introducing this type of signal into seismic models." reported Giuseppe Petrillo, researcher of theEarth Observatory of Singapore e first author of the study.
This research therefore represents an important step in understanding seismicity in complex volcanic areas, offering new perspectives for the future development of increasingly accurate probabilistic earthquake forecasting systems.
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National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV)
Fig – On the left, the earthquake epicenters and the geodetic station used in the study. On the right, from top to bottom: seismicity from 2013 to 2024, the cumulative number of events, and ground deformation.