With reference to some news spread in the last few hours regarding a scientific preprint regarding the evolution of bradyseism in the Campi Flegrei, theNational Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) It should be noted that the cited work is a preliminary study currently under scientific review and does not represent a deterministic prediction of the evolution of the phenomenon, nor, even less, a prediction of imminent seismic or eruptive events.
The work, available as a preprint on the platform arXiv, proposes a research hypothesis on the evolution of ground deformation in the Phlegraean Fields area and analyses the possibility that the current trend could evolve, in the coming years, towards a different dynamic regime, the nature of which cannot currently be defined in detail.
The INGV also emphasizes that some interpretations and reconstructions appearing in the press have attributed to the study content, statements, and meanings not present in the original scientific text, generating an inappropriate and potentially alarmist representation of the results.
In particular, the reference to procedures of “encrypted forecasting”, reported in some articles, concerns exclusively a technical methodology used in the international scientific field to validate forecast analyses through certified time recordings and does not imply the existence of secret forecasts or hidden scenarios relating to the Phlegraean Fields.
"It is important to distinguish between scientific research activities, which by their nature develop and verify interpretative hypotheses, and the official monitoring and risk assessment activities carried out by the INGV as part of the national civil protection system.”, underlines the President of INGV, Fabio Florindo. "Each assessment of the state of the caldera is carried out on the basis of the set of parameters observed and shared through the appropriate institutional channels.".
The INGV reiterates that the monitoring of the Campi Flegrei continues constantly through multi-parametric networks and surveillance systems active 24 hours a day, and invites you to refer exclusively to the official communications of the Institute and the Department of Civil Protection (DPC) for information regarding the evolution of bradyseismic phenomena and seismicity in the area.
