The Institute intervenes in the debate on recent school publications: the role of human activities in global warming is confirmed by solid scientific data.
In recent days, some statements on climate change contained in the volume “Climate Change: Scenarios, Challenges, and Solutions" have sparked a broad debate in the scientific community. In particular, some considerations expressed by the President of the Order of Geologists of Veneto, Giorgio Giacchetti, in the contribution "Territorial Resilience: Between Knowledge, Maintenance, and Uncertainty".
On such an important topic, and especially when these contents are also intended for schools, theIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) considers it useful to recall some scientific elements that are well consolidated today.
It's well known that Earth's climate has always changed. The planet's history records vastly different climate phases, determined over time by natural factors such as orbital variations, solar activity, major volcanic eruptions, and changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation.
It is precisely the study of these phenomena, and more generally of the Earth's climate history, that today allows us to distinguish natural variations that occurred in the past from the changes observed since the beginning of the industrial era. The available evidence on this point is very solid. The reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which synthesize thousands of scientific studies and a large body of independent observations, clearly indicate that the global warming observed in recent decades is mainly due to human activities and, in particular, to greenhouse gas emissions.
Natural factors continue to influence the climate, but they cannot explain the increase in temperatures recorded in recent times..
Similarly, the anthropogenic origin of the increase in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide compared to pre-industrial times is well documented. This is supported not by a single observation, but by a coherent body of evidence: from modern atmospheric measurements to polar ice cores, which preserve veritable samples of the past atmosphere within their air bubbles, from global emissions balances to isotopic analyses.
For these reasons, INGV shares the call for scientific rigor already expressed by the Department of Geosciences of the University of Padua and the National Research Council (CNR), especially considering the fact that the volume was also intended for schools.
"Doubt and comparison are part of the scientific method and are essential to advance knowledge.", points out Fabio Florindo, President of the INGV. “But the comparison must start from the available data and must correctly represent the level of robustness of the different interpretations. Not all hypotheses have the same scientific weight. In the case of current climate change, the predominantly anthropogenic origin of global warming is supported by independent observations, the physics of the climate system, and decades of research.".
"Those who study the Earth system are well aware of the natural variability of the climate and we know how profound environmental transformations have been throughout the history of the planet.", goes on Florindo. "But it is precisely this knowledge that allows us to recognize what distinguishes current climate change from many changes that occurred in the past. Invoking the Earth's natural cycles is therefore correct, but it cannot be used to equate explanations that currently have very different scientific support.".
There's another aspect worth highlighting. Talking about reducing the causes of climate change doesn't mean overlooking the need to adapt to its effects.
For a country like Italy, geological knowledge of the territory, monitoring, prevention, and reduction of hydrogeological risk remain fundamental objectives. Adaptation and mitigation are not alternative paths: they must proceed together.
The issue becomes even more delicate when science communication is addressed to students. Building critical thinking means teaching students to discuss knowledge, recognize uncertainties, and engage with data. However, it also means providing a correct picture of what scientific research has now established with a high degree of reliability.
On complex and important issues like climate change, discussion is not only legitimate, but necessary. Precisely for this reason, it must begin with evidence.
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