An international study highlights how the intensification of the phenomena could put airport infrastructures in serious difficulty.
The safety and efficiency of global aviation could be jeopardized by climate change. This is highlighted. an international study conducted by an international team of researchers and carried out in collaboration with the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), published in the magazine Weather and Climate Dynamics. Intensifying stormsIn fact, would lead to an increase in turbulence and an intensification of winds, affecting global air traffic.
The research analyzed four major weather events that have significantly impacted flights and airport infrastructure in recent years. These include Storm Eunice in February 2022, which hit the United Kingdom and Ireland; Storm Poly in July 2023, the first of its kind to reach Europe, affecting Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom; the North American storm complex in February 2023, which, with hail, snow, and strong winds, crossed much of the United States; and Typhoon Hinnamnor in August 2022, which affected Japan, South Korea, and other areas of East Asia.
From a comparison with similar events in the past, a clear sign of intensification has emerged over the years, with increasingly stronger winds and increasing levels of turbulence being produced. “Our analyses show that storms affecting major airports around the world today are more intense and characterized by higher wind speeds and turbulence than in the past.” explained Tommaso Alberti, researcher at the INGV and co-author of the study. “The increase in intensity of these storms is closely linked to global warming: warmer atmospheres and oceans provide greater energy and moisture, fueling the growth and intensification of these storm systems, but also altering their typical paths.” the researcher continued.
A closer look at Storm Eunice, which in February 2022 caused over 470 flight cancellations in the UK and Ireland, with damages estimated at around €2,5 billion, shows that similar events are more frequent today and tend to occur earlier in the winter season, as early as December. These storms generate larger wind fields and more widespread turbulence, particularly near strategic hubs such as Heathrow and Dublin, increasing risks during take-off and landing and causing frequent operational disruptions. “An increase in turbulence not only leads to reduced comfort for passengers, but also higher operating costs: flying in or avoiding turbulent areas requires more fuel and entails higher maintenance costs.” Alberti explained. “The temporary closure of an airport due to a storm, even for just a few hours, can ultimately have significant social and economic repercussions.” the author continued.
According to the study, Adapting the aviation system to a changing climate also requires improving forecasting models and using high-resolution climate simulations to better assess local impacts. "Only through close collaboration between the scientific community, regulatory authorities, and the transport sector will it be possible to strengthen the system's resilience in the face of increasingly extreme weather events." concluded Alberti.
Link to evaluate:
Results for some metrics for Storm Eunice. Specifically, panel "d" shows a measure of turbulence intensity during the takeoff/landing phases; orange indicates at least moderate turbulence. Panel "h" shows changes in this measure of turbulence intensity during the takeoff/landing phases in the recent period (1989-2023) compared to the past period (1950-1984); red indicates increasing changes, hence more turbulence.