A new study highlights the importance of planning and managing tsunami risks in Mediterranean coastal areas threatened by climate change.
Global warming could significantly increase the danger of tsunamis in the Mediterranean in the coming decades.
This is what emerges from two studies just published in the international journal Scientific Reports entitled Including sea-level rise and vertical land movements in probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Mediterranean Sea and in the volume published by Elsevier entitled Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis, in which researchers from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) collaborated.
The results, the result of the European projects Savemedcoasts2 and TSUMAPS-NEAM coordinated by INGV, highlight that the expected rise in sea level caused by global warming, combined with coastal geological movements, could potentially increase the risk for over 150 million people living in this area.
The studies analyse the impact of sea level rise, currently around 4 mm per year but accelerating, based on projections up to 2150 provided by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
"By the end of this century, global mean sea level could rise by up to 1,1 meters compared to today.", explains Marco Anzidei, researcher at INGV, co-author of the study and coordinator of the Savemedcoasts2 project. "This potentially represents a growing risk for coastal populations of the Mediterranean that we cannot underestimate.".
One of the novelties of the research was the integration of analyses on vertical coastal movements, such as subsidence, which amplify the local effects of sea level rise.
"In the study we considered how geological movements can add to sea level rise, aggravating the risk in areas where the ground tends to lower", comments Anita Grezio, researcher at INGV and first author of the study.
The maps produced by the researchers show that, within the next 50 years, the probability of having tsunami waves in the Mediterranean that cause flooding of 1-2 meters could increase from 10% to 30%.
"This means a significant increase in risk, particularly for the low-lying coasts of the Mediterranean, one of the most populated areas in the world," Marco Anzidei underlines.
The importance of these analyses is crucial for planning and risk management in coastal areas.
"Our research provides new tools to assess tsunami hazards, integrating future scenarios that take into account both climate change and geological phenomena," concludes Anita Grezio.
The Savemedcoasts2 and TSUMAPS-NEAM projects were funded by the European Union and coordinated by INGV, contributing with key results to the understanding of tsunami-related risks in a highly vulnerable area such as the Mediterranean.
Links to publications
Including sea-level rise and vertical land movements in probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Mediterranean Sea
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-79770-9
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B9780443189876000154).
Link to evaluate
Photo – The rise in sea level induced by global warming will amplify the effects of tsunami waves on the coasts in the coming years. In particular on low-lying coasts, which are now often occupied by important infrastructures and residential areas. In the photo, a stretch of coast in eastern Sicily. Photo credits: Marco Anzidei.
Image – Tsunamis are rare events, but they can be potentially dangerous. The figure shows maps indicating the probability of exceeding 1 m or 2 m waves on current coastlines over the next 50 years (top) and the percentage increases in these probabilities (bottom) when considering projections that take into account the expected sea level rise in the coming decades.