An earthquake of magnitude 5.5-6 should have occurred in an area with a radius of 150 kilometers around Foggia, reaching areas of Molise, Campania, Basilicata, Abruzzo, Calabria as well as Puglia (download the text of the forecast).
INGV had warned the Civil Protection Department even though it did not consider the prediction scientifically reliable. actually? Not ? nothing happened, not even the most little shock. Not ? the first time that this group, headed by Leonid Doda and to which Russian and Italian researchers have joined, including Giampaolo Giuliani, has made public hypothetical forecasts of earthquakes without these occurring. Recently, another earthquake of magnitude 6.2 should have occurred in September again in Puglia.
These predictions are based on comparisons of series of atmospheric observations and radon gas emissions from the ground (Figure 1 and 2).
Unfortunately - we say "unfortunately" why? it would be nice to have a method to predict earthquakes! — ? been demonstrated by many international studies that the prediction of earthquakes is still not? possible.
The hypothetical earthquakes predicted by the Italian-Russian group would always affect extremely large areas over a rather long period of time: ? obvious that, continuing to make predictions of this type on areas that are actually seismic, sooner or later? It's possible that some predictions are right. In this case for?, there? it would not prove that the predictions have meaning. ? how to always predict rain for the next day, regardless of the weather data: sometimes it actually rains!
Earthquakes cannot be predicted. This does not mean that nothing can or should not be done. The National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, with the most? modern and dozens of researchers, studies and observes the Italian territory to be able to get to know it and work at the service of the population and the institutions that must provide for protection and the development of plans in the event of an emergency. Its monitoring stations and experts, who keep every point of the Italian territory under control, are operational 24 hours a day every day of the year. The research projects, carried out internationally under the supervision of the community? science in an atmosphere of openness and confrontation, produce more knowledge every year, which is added to the data that tell the story of seismic Italy for hundreds of years and which increases our possibilities? to understand these natural events and protect ourselves from their devastating effects.
