PROGRAMMING CPV ACTIVITIES THREE-YEAR PERIOD 2019-2021

Researchers from the INGV section of Palermo at work along the edge of the crater of La Fossa on the island of Vulcano (photo by G. Capasso)

In the three-year period 2019-2021 the activity of the CPV will focus on the topics defined by the Convention B2 DPC-INGV 2012-2021 and in particular will address the following studies and objectives:

For Vesuvius
• Probabilistic hazard maps for flood phenomena and mud flows in case of eruption

For the Campi Flegrei:
• Implementation of a real-time monitoring system of ground deformations in the Neapolitan volcanic area (Campi Flegrei, Vesuvius and Ischia) through high-frequency GNSS measurements (HR-GNSS) and development of statistical and numerical models for probability mapping short-term eruption of the caldera
• Development of monitoring techniques for the assessment of phreatic hazards in the Solfatara-Pisciarelli hydrothermal area
• 4D geophysical monitoring of the Solfatara-Pisciarelli system
• Determination of heat flux using mobile thermal imaging camera, drone and satellite
• Evaluation of perception of volcanic risk (figure 1)

For lschia
• Assessment of seismic hazard induced by local events in Ischia
• Implementation of a network of stations for continuous measurement of groundwater and soil temperatures on the island of Ischia
• Preparatory products for the definition of the expected scenarios in case of resumption of the eruptive activity in Ischia

For Etna:
• Quantitative estimation and modeling of the statistical dependence of seismicity and eruptions at Etna, based on historical data, with particular attention to the possible link between major earthquakes and lateral eruptions
• Development of new modules based on Deep Learning techniques and modeling of volcanic sources to be integrated with the Early-Warning Etnea platform
• Characterization of seismic sources in near real-time: application to the monitoring of volcanic areas in Sicily
• Optimization of the acquisition of the high-precision signals of the strainmeters installed in the Etna well and transfer of the data to the OE Operations Room for surveillance and implementation purposes within the iASPE system
• Implementation of the TRUST - Etna eruption assistant system: a pre-operational real-time warning module for eruptions at Etna.
• Real-time quantification of Etna's eruptive activity from analysis of fixed network images of thermal cameras and validation with satellite data

For the Aeolian Islands:
• Database of numerical simulations and invasion maps in the Aeolian Islands and the southern Tyrrhenian Sea for tsunami waves generated by sub-aerial and submarine landslides along the Sciara del Fuoco (Stromboli)
• Development of a gas hazard early warning system at Vulcano (photo 2)

For the Colli Albani
• Hazard assessment for gas release and formation of lahar(s) from Lake Albano

Photo 1 - Diagram of the results of a first study on the perception of volcanic risk at Campi Flegrei (from Ricci et al., 2013). 70% of the people who participated in the questionnaire indicated Vesuvius as the potentially most dangerous active volcano for their territory, while only 20% indicated Solfatara and 5% Campi Flegrei. The analysis of the data recorded in Pozzuoli (in red) highlights a countertrend with respect to the overall data, with almost 59% of people indicating the Solfatara (47,5%), the Campi Flegrei (7,6%) and Monte Nuovo (3,5%) as potentially dangerous volcanic areas for their territory. This result can be explained in the light of the two important bradyseismic crises that profoundly involved the city of Pozzuoli in the 70s and 80s.

Figure 2 - Researchers of the INGV Section of Palermo at work along the edge of the crater of La Fossa on the island of Vulcano (photo by G. Capasso)