Venice and its lagoon could be exposed to extreme flooding by 2150 due to rising sea levels and subsidence, a phenomenon known as “subsidence”
The multidisciplinary study Multi-Temporal Relative Sea Level Rise Scenarios up to 2150 for the Venice Lagoon (Italy) conducted by researchers at theNational Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) in collaboration with Italian and foreign institutions, recently published in the scientific journal 'Remote Sensing', has analyzed the most up-to-date climate projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the geodetic data available to estimate the extent of the surfaces exposed to flooding in the coming decades, due to sea level rise.
The results assume critical scenarios for the entire lagoon and the MoSE, currently designed to protect Venice from high waters up to a height of 3 meters of difference between the open sea and the lagoon and a mean sea level of 60 cm in 2100, could be exceeded by the sea towards the end of this century.
“The survey was conducted with the aim of providing information on the upcoming evolution of sea level rise in the Venice Lagoon to understand how this can influence one of the most iconic cities in the world", says Marco Anzidei, first author of the INGV research.
The study combines geodetic and topographic data and climate projections to assess the impact of sea level changes on the coasts and islands of the lagoon in the coming decades.
“To estimate the effects of sea level rise in the Venice Lagoon by 2150, the study adopted a multidisciplinary approach based on different types of data, including geodetic data from the Global Navigation Satellite System station networks, known as GNSS, Synthetic Aperture Radar - SAR satellite data (which together with the GNSS stations allows ground movements to be measured with millimetric precision), the sea level time series collected by the network of tide gauges from the Higher Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) and the Tide Forecasting and Reporting Centre of the Municipality of Venice and the high-resolution topographic data made available provision from and by the Ministry of Environment and Energy Security (MASE)”, explain Marco Anzidei and Cristiano Tolomei, researchers at the INGV.
The analyses conducted allowed us to project expected sea levels for the Venice Lagoon up to 2150, by providing also detailed maps of possible flood scenarios for 2050, 2100 and 2150, in the absence of systems to protect the lagoon from sea levels higher than today.
“The results indicate that in the worst case scenario, the sea level in 2150 could rise up to 3,47 meters above the reference of the Punta della Salute tide gauge station, located in the Giudecca Canal, in the event of extreme high tide events, similar to those that occurred in 1966 and more recently in 2019. Furthermore, the territory potentially submerged by 2150 would reach 139 km², with an extension that could reach 226 km² (equal to 64% of the investigated area) in the event of these exceptional high waters.
The data highlights that without further specific interventions Venice will be more exposed to flooding phenomena, with a significant impact on the population and on the historical heritage.", add Tommaso Alberti and Daniele Trippanera, researchers at the INGV.
The study, which was funded by the Ministry of University and Research as part of the PRIN - GAIA project, and which continues other studies already published on Venice as part of the European project SAVEMEDCOASTS2 (), also highlights how the sea level rise in the Lagoon has been occurring since historical times and that its vulnerability is today amplified by the effects of climate change and the continued subsidence of the soil, which reaches values of up to 7 mm per year. The lower areas of the lagoon would therefore be more exposed at risk of flooding, with critical implications for coastal infrastructure and economic activities.
"The scenarios outlined suggest that it is necessary to undertake updates to territorial planning and risk plans as soon as possible by political decision makers and local authorities, with concrete actions to protect Venice and its lagoon. Only through responsible and conscious management will it be possible to preserve the city, its population and a unique cultural heritage in the world from the consequences of the sea level rise expected in the coming decades” concludes Marco Anzidei.
Link to the study
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National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV)
