By analyzing the temporal frequency of the eruptions in the phases of high and low activity of the volcanoes in the Neapolitan area, the researchers have developed a single statistical model for evaluating their behavior and their eruptive potential
For the first time, researchers can produce a comparable assessment of the probability of eruption and the danger in the area between the three Neapolitan volcanoes: Vesuvius, Ischia and Campi Flegrei. All this thanks to a new statistical model which, by studying the alternation of periods of high and low eruptive activity, makes it possible to compare even very different volcanic systems, improving understanding of their behaviour.
This is the result of the study " created by an international team of researchers from theNational Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV),University of the Studi of Bari “Aldo Moro” and British Geological Survey (BGS) of Edinburgh (UK).
The study, just published in the scientific journal Science Advances, analyzed the three active volcanoes of the Neapolitan area: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and the island of Ischia.
"By studying the geological data and historical records of these three volcanoes, so significantly different from each other, we were able to develop a statistical model based on the analysis of the phases of high and low eruptive activity", explains Jacopo Selva, INGV researcher and first author of the article. “Our model is based on only three parameters: the annual eruptive frequency of volcanoes in their periods of low activity, the same annual eruptive frequency recorded - vice versa - in periods of high activity, and the so-called 'threshold intervention time', i.e. the time interval without eruptions after which it is possible to sanction the passage of the volcano from a phase of high to a phase of low eruptive activity".
The results of the study carried out by applying this new model have shown how the start and end dynamics of the phases of high eruptive activity are significantly different between Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia, each linked to the specific volcanic processes that dominate the individual volcanoes.
"In most volcanoes, however different from each other, there are at least two states, which we identified as periods of high and low activity, and with our model we quantitatively describe the alternation between these two states", continues Roberto Sulpizio, of the University of Bari. "By studying the eruptive history of the Neapolitan volcanoes, which are very different from each other, with our model we have homogeneously described the characteristics of the two different states of activity for each of them and the timing in which the equilibrium of the system is recorded again volcanic after a phase of high eruptive activity. These analyzes they can provide important data to fully understand the dynamics that govern the occurrence of eruptions, but above all allow estimate homogeneously e compare the probability of eruption of different volcanoes, and, consequently, their danger".
The research addressed the different types of volcanism of the Neapolitan volcanoes: that of Vesuvius, an open/closed conduit stratovolcano, that of Campi Flegrei, a vast volcanic caldera formed following at least three enormous eruptions, and that of Ischia, a building volcanic that has risen more than 1000 meters from the seabed following a process called "volcanic resurgence". All three volcanoes insist on the territory of the metropolitan area of Naples, densely populated. Therefore, the newly published study contributes to improving the scientific understanding and, consequently, the probabilistic prediction of the eruptive activity of volcanoes, fundamental activities to mitigate the risks for the populations residing in volcanic areas and for the infrastructures.
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NEAPOLITAN VOLCANOES | A novel statistical model has been developed to calculate the probabilities of eruption of the three different Neapolitan volcanoes
By analyzing the temporal frequency of eruptions in the phases of high and low activity of the volcanoes of the Neapolitan area, the researchers developed a statistical model for evaluating their behavior and their eruptive potential
For the first time, researchers can produce a comparable assessment of the probability of eruption and of the hazards related to the three Neapolitan volcanoes: Vesuvius, Ischia, and Campi Flegrei. All this thanks to a new statistical model that, based on the analysis of the alternation of periods of high and low eruptive activity, allows modeling very different volcanic systems, improving the understanding of their behavior.
This is the result of the study carried out by an international team of researchers from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), The University of Bari “Aldo Moro” and the British Geological Survey (BGS) of Edinburgh (UK).
The study, just published in the scientific journal Science Advances, analyzed the three active volcanoes of the Neapolitan area in Italy: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and the island of Ischia.
"By studying the geological record and the historical chronicles of these three very different volcanoes, we were able to develop a statistical model based on the analysis of the high and low eruptive activity phases”, explains Jacopo Selva, researcher of the INGV and first author of the article. “Our model is based on three parameters: the annual eruptive frequency of volcanoes in their periods of low activity, the same annual eruptive frequency recorded - vice versa - in periods of high activity, and the so-called 'threshold inter-event time' , that is to say the time interval without eruptions after which it is possible to establish the passage of the volcano from a high to a low eruptive activity phase”.
The results of the study, carried out applying this new model, have highlighted how the dynamics of start and end of the phases of high eruptive activity are significantly different between Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia, each linked to the specific volcanic processes that dominate the individual volcanoes.
“In most volcanoes, although different from each other, there are at least two states, which we have identified as periods of high and low activity, and with our model we quantitatively describe the alternation between these two states”, continues Roberto Sulpizio, of the University of Bari. “By studying the eruptive history of Neapolitan volcanoes, very different one from the others, with our model we have described in a homogeneous way the characteristics of the two different states of activity for each of them and the timing in which the equilibrium of the volcanic system is recovered again after a phase of high eruptive activity. These analyses can provide important data to fully understand the dynamics that govern the occurrence of eruptions, but above all they allow us to homogeneously estimate and appears the probability of eruption of the various volcanoes, and, consequently, their hazard".
The research dealt with the different types of volcanism of the Neapolitan volcanoes: Vesuvius, an open-/closed-conduit stratovolcano, Campi Flegrei, a vast volcanic caldera formed after at least three huge caldera-forming eruptions, and Ischia, a volcanic edifice that has risen over 1000 meters from the seafloor as a consequence of a process known as “volcanic resurgence”. All the three volcanoes insist on the densely populated territory of the metropolitan area of Naples. Therefore, the newly published study helps to improve scientific understanding and, consequently, the probabilistic forecast of the eruptive activity of volcanoes, a fundamental information to mitigate the risks for people living in volcanic areas and for infrastructures.
For the first time, researchers can produce a comparable assessment of the probability of eruption and the danger in the area between the three Neapolitan volcanoes: Vesuvius, Ischia and Campi Flegrei. All this thanks to a new statistical model which, by studying the alternation of periods of high and low eruptive activity, makes it possible to compare even very different volcanic systems, improving understanding of their behaviour.
This is the result of the study " created by an international team of researchers from theNational Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV),University of the Studi of Bari “Aldo Moro” and British Geological Survey (BGS) of Edinburgh (UK).
The study, just published in the scientific journal Science Advances, analyzed the three active volcanoes of the Neapolitan area: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and the island of Ischia.
"By studying the geological data and historical records of these three volcanoes, so significantly different from each other, we were able to develop a statistical model based on the analysis of the phases of high and low eruptive activity", explains Jacopo Selva, INGV researcher and first author of the article. “Our model is based on only three parameters: the annual eruptive frequency of volcanoes in their periods of low activity, the same annual eruptive frequency recorded - vice versa - in periods of high activity, and the so-called 'threshold intervention time', i.e. the time interval without eruptions after which it is possible to sanction the passage of the volcano from a phase of high to a phase of low eruptive activity".
The results of the study carried out by applying this new model have shown how the start and end dynamics of the phases of high eruptive activity are significantly different between Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia, each linked to the specific volcanic processes that dominate the individual volcanoes.
"In most volcanoes, however different from each other, there are at least two states, which we identified as periods of high and low activity, and with our model we quantitatively describe the alternation between these two states", continues Roberto Sulpizio, of the University of Bari. "By studying the eruptive history of the Neapolitan volcanoes, which are very different from each other, with our model we have homogeneously described the characteristics of the two different states of activity for each of them and the timing in which the equilibrium of the system is recorded again volcanic after a phase of high eruptive activity. These analyzes they can provide important data to fully understand the dynamics that govern the occurrence of eruptions, but above all allow estimate homogeneously e compare the probability of eruption of different volcanoes, and, consequently, their danger".
The research addressed the different types of volcanism of the Neapolitan volcanoes: that of Vesuvius, an open/closed conduit stratovolcano, that of Campi Flegrei, a vast volcanic caldera formed following at least three enormous eruptions, and that of Ischia, a building volcanic that has risen more than 1000 meters from the seabed following a process called "volcanic resurgence". All three volcanoes insist on the territory of the metropolitan area of Naples, densely populated. Therefore, the newly published study contributes to improving the scientific understanding and, consequently, the probabilistic prediction of the eruptive activity of volcanoes, fundamental activities to mitigate the risks for the populations residing in volcanic areas and for the infrastructures.
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NEAPOLITAN VOLCANOES | A novel statistical model has been developed to calculate the probabilities of eruption of the three different Neapolitan volcanoes
By analyzing the temporal frequency of eruptions in the phases of high and low activity of the volcanoes of the Neapolitan area, the researchers developed a statistical model for evaluating their behavior and their eruptive potential
For the first time, researchers can produce a comparable assessment of the probability of eruption and of the hazards related to the three Neapolitan volcanoes: Vesuvius, Ischia, and Campi Flegrei. All this thanks to a new statistical model that, based on the analysis of the alternation of periods of high and low eruptive activity, allows modeling very different volcanic systems, improving the understanding of their behavior.
This is the result of the study carried out by an international team of researchers from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), The University of Bari “Aldo Moro” and the British Geological Survey (BGS) of Edinburgh (UK).
The study, just published in the scientific journal Science Advances, analyzed the three active volcanoes of the Neapolitan area in Italy: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and the island of Ischia.
"By studying the geological record and the historical chronicles of these three very different volcanoes, we were able to develop a statistical model based on the analysis of the high and low eruptive activity phases”, explains Jacopo Selva, researcher of the INGV and first author of the article. “Our model is based on three parameters: the annual eruptive frequency of volcanoes in their periods of low activity, the same annual eruptive frequency recorded - vice versa - in periods of high activity, and the so-called 'threshold inter-event time' , that is to say the time interval without eruptions after which it is possible to establish the passage of the volcano from a high to a low eruptive activity phase”.
The results of the study, carried out applying this new model, have highlighted how the dynamics of start and end of the phases of high eruptive activity are significantly different between Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia, each linked to the specific volcanic processes that dominate the individual volcanoes.
“In most volcanoes, although different from each other, there are at least two states, which we have identified as periods of high and low activity, and with our model we quantitatively describe the alternation between these two states”, continues Roberto Sulpizio, of the University of Bari. “By studying the eruptive history of Neapolitan volcanoes, very different one from the others, with our model we have described in a homogeneous way the characteristics of the two different states of activity for each of them and the timing in which the equilibrium of the volcanic system is recovered again after a phase of high eruptive activity. These analyses can provide important data to fully understand the dynamics that govern the occurrence of eruptions, but above all they allow us to homogeneously estimate and appears the probability of eruption of the various volcanoes, and, consequently, their hazard".
The research dealt with the different types of volcanism of the Neapolitan volcanoes: Vesuvius, an open-/closed-conduit stratovolcano, Campi Flegrei, a vast volcanic caldera formed after at least three huge caldera-forming eruptions, and Ischia, a volcanic edifice that has risen over 1000 meters from the seafloor as a consequence of a process known as “volcanic resurgence”. All the three volcanoes insist on the densely populated territory of the metropolitan area of Naples. Therefore, the newly published study helps to improve scientific understanding and, consequently, the probabilistic forecast of the eruptive activity of volcanoes, a fundamental information to mitigate the risks for people living in volcanic areas and for infrastructures.
Figure: Schematic representation of the new statistical model that reinterprets the eruptive history of the three Neapolitan volcanoes, Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia, making it possible to produce for the first time a comparable assessment of the probabilities of eruption and of the danger in the area between the three volcanoes. - Figure: Figure: A sketch of the new statistical model that reinterprets the eruptive history of the three Napolitan volcanoes, Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia, allowing for the first time a comparable assessment of the probability of eruption and of the hazard for the territory between these three very different volcanoes.