The final conference of the SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 (Sea level rise scenarios along the Mediterranean coasts-2) project funded by the Directorate General for Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Unions of the European Union (DG -ECHO) from 2019 to 2022.
In the Conference the project partners showed the results and the state of the art of the project aimed at mitigating the risks related to the effects of sea level rise on Mediterranean coastal areas, induced by climate change and coastal subsidence. To find out more, we interviewed Marco Anzidei, first INGV researcher and coordinator of the Savemedcoasts and Savemedcoasts-2 projects.
Marco, what kind of project is SAVEMEDCOASTS-2?
SAVEMEDCOASTS-2, which started at the end of 2019, is the second operational phase of the European project SAVEMEDCOASTS carried out between 2016 and 2019. The general objective follows the purposes of the DGECHO, i.e. to carry out prevention and preparedness work for natural disasters. In this case due to the combined effects of sea level rise and coastal subsidence in the most exposed areas of the Mediterranean region. To this end, maps are created that represent the expected flood scenarios in 2030, 2050 and 2100. The analyzes also take into account the amplification effects that future storm surges and tsunamis could have in conditions of higher sea levels than today.
As this is a Civil Protection project, the results can be used by local policy makers to address the needs of coastal populations, preparing them to deal with the potential effects of sea level rise in the coming years.
In the first phase, with SAVEMEDCOASTS, we made a general picture of the Mediterranean, fine-tuning the methodology. In this second phase, with SAVEMEDCOASTS-2, we have extended the analyzes and concentrated our efforts on some specific areas.
What areas are affected by the project activities?
The project carries out activities in selected areas of the Mediterranean coasts, such as river deltas, lagoons, coastal plains and reclamation areas. In these, natural and anthropic subsidence accelerates the effects of marine ingression, with consequent greater risks of submersion of coastal stretches of high natural and economic value and possible cascading effects on human activities and the environment. The case studies of the project are the Ebro river delta in Spain, the Venice lagoon in Italy, the Chalastra plain in Greece, the Basento reclamation area in Italy. Coastal risk scenarios were implemented in these areas and communication campaigns were carried out towards stakeholders and schools. In addition to these, we also analyzed the coast of Alexandria in Egypt, the Rhone delta in France and the coast of Larnaca in Cyprus, analyzing the gaps and the needs of the stakeholders.
What are the activities you carry out?
Since it is a question of studying a complex system where solid earth, fluid earth and climate interact, we use a multidisciplinary approach to formulate the possible expected scenarios. We first analyze the tidal wave data to calculate the current sea level trend and calculate the current subsidence rates through geodetic data obtained from GNSS monitoring networks and satellite interferometry data analysis. Subsequently, we elaborate high-resolution digital maps obtained from LiDAR data (airplane lasers) or aerial photogrammetry obtained from drones, on which to show the surfaces at potential risk of marine flooding. Finally, this information is integrated into the climate projections provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This workflow allows to evaluate what will be the expected flood scenarios up to 2100 and the consequent coastal risks. The aim is to support administrators in coastal management by facilitating cooperation with the scientific community in order to identify mitigation and adaptation measures. Specific attention is devoted to risk communication to schools and teachers to prepare new generations for this global problem.
What emerged from the conference that was recently held?
The situation is very worrying and is there for all to see. Not only from an environmental point of view, but also from an economic point of view. Considering that according to the IPCC between now and 2100 the global sea level could increase up to about one meter and taking into account the role of subsidence, in some areas there could be increases of even more than 1,50 meters. In the Mediterranean we have identified 163 main coastal areas that are less than two meters above the current sea level, which will therefore be the first to suffer the consequences of the phenomenon together with the thousands of small beaches.
What are the areas at risk in Italy?
With the Municipality of Venice, partner of SAVEMEDCOASTS-2, we evaluated the new scenarios expected for this coastal city between now and 2100 in order to prepare the population for emergencies such as that of November 2019, when the sea level reached 188 cm height. But it is not only Venice that is causing concern: the Romagna coast, as well as Basento and the Aeolian Islands, where subsidence is particularly active, are also at risk. In particular, sea level rise causes impacts on coasts and is potentially capable of causing greater economic and social damage than those caused by earthquakes, which by their nature affect areas of limited extension. The expected damage, if climate change is not slowed down, is much higher and we cannot be caught unprepared. These are events that do not happen suddenly and the international scientific community agrees on the possibility of such scenarios occurring by the end of the century. Policy makers need to be made aware of this so that they can work together with the world of science to mitigate the risks associated with these scenarios.
To conclude, the book "Sea level rise. What is important to know to face the upcoming changes”, implemented within the SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 project. Where can we find it?
The book, created with the collaboration of the INGV Graphics and Image laboratory, is free and is currently available in Italian. Over the next few months, the English language version will be released, and hopefully the Spanish and Greek versions as well. For those interested, you can download it at the following link:
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